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*** LOCAL (Jacksonville/NE Fl./SE Ga.) IMPACTS FROM THE TROPICS: Rip currents & an easterly swell (waves) at the beaches by Sunday into early next week...
The Atlantic Basin Overview:
Franklin hit Haiti & the especially the Dominican Republic with very heavy rain Wed. The storm will now stay over the Southwest Atlantic then turn rather sharply to the north with some distant impacts (waves & rip currents) on the U.S. east coast. There may be more significant impacts for parts of Nova Scotia & Newfoundland late next week.
There continues to be inconsistent but noteworthy signals - of possible new Gulf of Mexico development in the longer range - next week - which appears to originate from a disturbance moving northward from over or near Central America. This potential development could have impacts on some part of the Gulf Coast &/or Florida next week & - depending on the speed of the forward movement - near the Labor Day weekend though early indications are the system’s impacts would be before the holiday weekend.
(1) Once tropical wave ‘90-L’ is tropical storm “Franklin” (upgraded late Sunday) over the Northern Caribbean. Westerly wind shear is slowly diminishing & Franklin seems to be getting its act together now after the move over the rugged terrain of Hispaniola. Furthermore... satellite data shows better outflow over the top of the tropical cyclone - another indicator of likely intensification soon. A turn more to the northeast & even east is in progress now but a sharp bend to the north can be expected by Saturday. The combination of less shear plus upper level diffluence thanks to a trough of low pressure to the north should lead to an eventually powerful hurricane over the Western Atlantic with some impacts for Bermuda by about Tuesday. It appears there may be at least some threat to Newfoundland & Nova Scotia by late next week. And Franklin should be strong enough - while still well to the east of Florida - by Sunday/Monday/Tuesday to produce an easterly swell at area beaches resulting in a heightened rip current risk.
In the meantime, other than a gusty breeze... weather conditions will continue to improve across Haiti, Dominican Republic & Puerto Rico through the weekend.
(2) An area of low pressure is expected to develop & evolve by next week emanating from a disturbance over & near Central America. The long range forecast is highly uncertain given there’s no surface low pressure to truly track yet in addition to pretty wild swings in the forecast models. It would be prudent to not “jump” on any single forecast model solution but rather look at the aggregate or ensemble of the models which do *relatively consistently* hint at a system developing over the Gulf of Mexico next week. The European has been the most emphatic model on eventual development... along with the Canadian forecast model (though I’m not particularly a fan typically of the CMC). The American GFS model has basically stuck with an elongated surface trough of low pressure with a surge of tropical moisture.
It is still very early on this potential system, but I do have reasonable confidence that a tropical system “of some sort” will eventually manifest itself over the Gulf with a movement some semblance of north (probably northeast)... & eventually a threat to some part of the U.S. Gulf coast &/or Florida. There will be lots of folks traveling late next week with Labor Day weekend just around the corner so stay up to date on the latest forecasts.
The image below is the European 500mb (~30-35,000 feet) model forecast for Monday, Aug. 28th. The alleyway for Franklin is clear over the W. Atlantic with the Bermuda high displaced far to the east while a trough of low pressure moves into the Eastern U.S. The disturbance “wanna-be” near the Gulf - if it develops - would seemingly have a tendency to get pulled northward given the strong continental high (”heat dome”) over the Central U.S. shifting more west while some semblance of troughing remains over/near the Eastern U.S.
Satellite sector below centered on the E. Pacific shows the possible disturbance that could lead to Gulf development over & near Central America. A prominent upper level low can also be seen over the far Southern Gulf of Mexico & is moving westward. This feature should help pull the disturbance northward. Strong wind shear is evident - 30+ mph - but should trend lower with time further north.
(3) ‘98-L′ was upgraded to tropical storm “Emily” Sun. morning over the Eastern Atlantic after coming off the coast of Africa last Wed. & deemed dissipated Mon. morning. It looks like there will be an attempt at re-strengthening over the N. Atlantic over the next few day again becoming Emily but with no threat to any land areas.
(4) another strong tropical wave - ‘92-L’ has come off the coast of Africa. This wave may develop but appears destined to stay far out to the east over the Atlantic.
Check out the upper oceanic heat content (UOHC) [tropical cyclone heat potential/TCHP] across the SW Atlantic, Gulf & Caribbean. The warmth is very deep. But keep in mind warm ocean temps. alone doesn’t necessarily equate to a “big” hurricane season (need other ingredients & factors to be favorable too) but it’s obvious there is a lot of very warm water at great depths over the Caribbean & Gulf of Mexico:
Water vapor loop (dark blue/yellow is dry mid & upper level air):
July tropical cyclone origins:
Averages below based on climatology for the Atlantic Basin for August:
Wind shear:
Saharan dust spreads west each year from Africa by the prevailing winds (from east to west over the Atlantic). Dry air - yellow/orange/red/pink. Widespread dust is indicative of dry air that can impede the development of tropical cyclones. However, sometimes “wanna’ be” waves will just wait until they get to the other side of - or away from - the plume then try to develop if other conditions are favorable. In my personal opinion, way too much is made about the presence of Saharan dust & how it relates to tropical cyclones. In any case, the peak of Saharan dust typically is in June & July.
2023 names..... “Idalia” is the next name on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random by the World Meteorological Organization... repeat every 6 years). Historic storms are retired [Florence & Michael in ’18... Dorian in ’19 & Laura, Eta & Iota in ‘20, Ida in ‘21 & Fiona & Ian in ‘22]). In fact, this year’s list of names is rather infamous with “Katrina”, “Rita” & “Wilma” retired from the ‘05 list & “Harvey”, “Irma”,“Maria” & “Nate” from the ‘17 list. The WMO decided - beginning in 2021 - that the Greek alphabet will be no longer used & instead there will be a supplemental list of names if the first list is exhausted (has only happened three times - 2005, 2020 & 2021). The naming of tropical cyclones began on a consistent basis in 1953. More on the history of naming tropical cyclones * here *.
East Atlantic:
Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear:
Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):
Deep oceanic heat content over the Gulf, Caribbean & deep tropical Atlantic. The brighter colors are expanding dramatically as we near the peak of the hurricane season.:
Sea surface temp. anomalies:
SE U.S. surface map:
Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:
Surface analysis of the Gulf:
Caribbean:
GFS wave forecast at 48 & 72 hours (2 & 3 days):
Atlantic Basin wave period forecast for 24, 48 & 72 hours respectively:
East/Central Pacific:
I wrote about “Hilary” near the top after the Atlantic waves. Elsewhere.....
West Pacific:
Global tropical activity:
T.D. #8:
T.S. #9 is forecast to strengthen into a formidable typhoon not far from the Philippines: