Talking the Tropics With Mike: Last day of the Atlantic hurricane season!

Jacksonville, Fl. — The 2025 hurricane season is underway. The early season forecasts from NOAA & Dr. Phil Klotzbach at Colorado State University are for an at least somewhat above average season largely predicated on warmer than average sea surface temps. & an expected more active than average African monsoon season. The ENSO (La Nina or El Nino) is generally not expected to come into play staying near neutral though some long range forecast models do show a La Nina (cooling of the equatorial Pacific=more active Atlantic) emerging late in the season.

THE TROPICS:

***** ALWAYS CHECK & RE-CHECK THE LATEST FORECAST & UPDATES! ****

Tropics threats for Jacksonville/NE Florida/SE Georgia: None.

The Atlantic Basin Overview:

The hurricane season is June 1st through Nov. 30th & the first name on the Atlantic list this year is “Andrea”.

The first week of the season looks to be quiet across the Atlantic. A weak upper level low move northward across the Eastern Gulf this week helping to induce a coastal trough near the east coast of Florida. While this will enhance rainfall this week across the Florida Peninsula, no true tropical development is expected.

There continue to be hints of some *possible* gradual development over the Western Caribbean &/or Southern Gulf in 10-12 days or so or about the second week of June. But forecast models have been very inconsistent on this potential & - by the far - the GFS model has been the most bullish while jumping all over the place from one model run to the next. Climatologically the Caribbean & Gulf would be favored for early season development, so it’s an area we’ll keep an eye on.

‘Velocity potential anomalies’ below. shows “Rising” air (green lines) equates with an uptick in overall convection. With rising air, conditions are generally more favorable for tropical development. Where there are brown lines, the air is generally sinking & is often less conducive to tropical cyclones (though not impossible to have development). There is a “pulse” of upward velocities headed eastward across the Pacific which should arrive near or over the Gulf & Caribbean by the second to third week or so of June which might be an indicator of increased *potential*.

The “Buresh Bottom Line”: Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Preparation Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.

STAY INFORMED: Get the * FREE * First Alert Weather app

FREE NEWS UPDATES, ALERTS: Action News Jax app for Apple | For Android

WATCH “Preparing for the Storm”

WATCH “The Ins & Outs of Hurricane Season”

READ the First Alert Hurricane Center “Preparation Guide”

LISTEN “First Alert Weather: Preparing for the Storm”

Federal Alliance for Safe Homes (FLASH) * here *.

REMEMBER WHEN A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE IS APPROACHING: Taping windows is *not* recommended & will not keep glass from breaking. Instead close curtains & blinds.

Realize the forecast cone (”cone of uncertainty”) is the average forecast error over a given time - out to 5 days - & *does not* indicate the width of the storm &/or where damage might occur.

Water vapor loop (dark blue/yellow is dry mid & upper level air):

June Atlantic tropical cyclone origins:

Averages below based on climatology for the Atlantic Basin for June:

Wind shear (red - strong shear; green - low shear). Shear is typically strong to start the hurricane season:

Saharan dust spreads west each year from Africa driven by the prevailing winds (from east to west over the Atlantic). Dry air = yellow/orange/red/pink. Widespread dust is indicative of dry air that *can* interfere with the development of tropical cyclones. However, sometimes “wanna’ be” waves will just wait until they get to the other side of - or away from - the dust plume then try to develop if other conditions are favorable (we saw this with Beryl & Debby last year). It’s my personal opinion that there is way too much “hoopla” about the presence of Saharan dust & how it relates to tropical cyclones. In any case, the peak of Saharan dust typically is in June & July, & we are indeed seeing a large “blob” of Saharan dust over the Central & Eastern Atlantic that’s thinning with westward extent.

2025 names..... “Andrea” is the first name on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random by the World Meteorological Organization... repeat every 6 years). Historic storms are retired [Florence & Michael in ’18... Dorian in ’19 (the last time this year’s list was used) ... Laura, Eta & Iota in ‘20 ... Ida in ‘21 ... Fiona & Ian in ‘22... no names were retired in ‘23 for the first time since 2014... & Beryl, Helene & Milton last year in 2024]). The WMO decided - beginning in 2021 - that the Greek alphabet will be no longer used & instead there will be a supplemental list of names if the first list is exhausted (has only happened three times - 2005, 2020 & 2021). The naming of tropical cyclones began on a consistent basis in 1953. More on the history of naming tropical cyclones * here *.

Hurricane season climatology:

East Atlantic:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear:

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content over the Gulf, Caribbean & tropical Atlantic. The colors will brighten greatly as the water warms to greater depths deeper into the season. It’s worth noting that the deep oceanic heat content right now is not as high as this time last year.

Sea surface temp. anomalies:

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:

Caribbean:

Atlantic Basin wave period forecast for 24, 48, 72 & 96 hours respectively:

East & Central Pacific:

The first tropical cyclone of the season - “Alvin” - already developed last week but has also already dissipated while moving northward off the coast of Mexico. The East Pacific is usually busier earlier vs. the Atlantic.